Modeling infectious disease dynamics in the complex landscape of global health

被引：448

作者：

Heesterbeek, Hans ^{[1
]}

Anderson, Roy M. ^{[2
]}

Andreasen, Viggo ^{[3
]}

Bansal, Shweta ^{[4
]}

De Angelis, Daniela ^{[5
]}

Dye, Chris ^{[6
]}

Eames, Ken T. D. ^{[7
]}

Edmunds, W. John ^{[7
]}

Frost, Simon D. W. ^{[8
]}

Funk, Sebastian ^{[4
]}

Hollingsworth, T. Deirdre ^{[9
,10
]}

House, Thomas ^{[11
]}

Isham, Valerie ^{[12
]}

Klepac, Petra ^{[8
]}

Lessler, Justin ^{[13
]}

Lloyd-Smith, James O. ^{[14
]}

Metcalf, C. Jessica E. ^{[15
,16
]}

Mollison, Denis ^{[17
]}

Pellis, Lorenzo ^{[11
]}

Pulliam, Juliet R. C. ^{[18
,19
]}

Roberts, Mick G. ^{[20
]}

Viboud, Cecile ^{[19
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Utrecht, Fac Vet Med, Utrecht, Netherlands

[2] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Sch Publ Hlth, London, England

[3] Roskilde Univ, Roskilde, Denmark

[4] Georgetown Univ, Washington, DC USA

[5] MRC, Biostat Unit, Cambridge CB2 2BW, England

[6] WHO, CH-1211 Geneva, Switzerland

[7] London Sch Hyg Trop Med, Ctr Math Modelling Infect Dis, London, England

[8] Univ Cambridge, Cambridge, England

[9] Univ Warwick, Sch Life Sci, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England

[10] Univ Liverpool, Sch Trop Med, Liverpool L69 3BX, Merseyside, England

[11] Univ Warwick, Warwick Math Inst, Coventry CV4 7AL, W Midlands, England

[12] UCL, Dept Stat Sci, London, England

[13] Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Epidemiol, Baltimore, MD USA

[14] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Los Angeles, CA USA

[15] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford, England

[16] Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

[17] Heriot Watt Univ, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland

[18] Univ Florida, Dept Biol, Emerging Pathogens Inst, Gainesville, FL USA

[19] NIH, Div Int Epidemiol & Populat Studies, Fogarty Int Ctr, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA

[20] Massey Univ, Inst Nat & Math Sci, Auckland, New Zealand

来源：

SCIENCE | 2015年 / 347卷 / 6227期

基金：

英国工程与自然科学研究理事会;

关键词：

HIV TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; SPREAD; IMPACT; COMMUNITY; MEASLES; NETWORK; EBOLA; RESISTANCE; WILDLIFE;

D O I：

10.1126/science.aaa4339

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Despite some notable successes in the control of infectious diseases, transmissible pathogens still pose an enormous threat to human and animal health. The ecological and evolutionary dynamics of infections play out on a wide range of interconnected temporal, organizational, and spatial scales, which span hours to months, cells to ecosystems, and local to global spread. Moreover, some pathogens are directly transmitted between individuals of a single species, whereas others circulate among multiple hosts, need arthropod vectors, or can survive in environmental reservoirs. Many factors, including increasing antimicrobial resistance, increased human connectivity and changeable human behavior, elevate prevention and control from matters of national policy to international challenge. In the face of this complexity, mathematical models offer valuable tools for synthesizing information to understand epidemiological patterns, and for developing quantitative evidence for decision-making in global health.

引用

页码：1216 / U29

页数：11

共 132 条

[41] Estimation of HIV Burden through Bayesian Evidence Synthesis [J].