Dynamically modeling SARS and other newly emerging respiratory illnesses - Past, present, and future

被引：157

作者：

Bauch, CT ^{[1
]}

Lloyd-Smith, JO

Coffee, MP

Galvani, AP

机构：

[1] Univ Guelph, Dept Math & Stat, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada

[2] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Environm Sci Policy & Management, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[3] Harvard Univ, Sch Med, Boston, MA USA

[4] Yale Univ, Yale Sch Med, Dept Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, New Haven, CT 06520 USA

来源：

EPIDEMIOLOGY | 2005年 / 16卷 / 06期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1097/01.ede.0000181633.80269.4c

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

The emergence and rapid global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus in 2002-2003 prompted efforts by modelers to characterize SARS epidemiology and inform control policies. We overview and discuss models for emerging infectious diseases (EIDs), provide a critical survey of SARS modeling literature, and discuss promising future directions for research. We reconcile discrepancies between published estimates of the basic reproductive number R-0 for SARS (a crucial epidemiologic parameter), discuss insights regarding SARS control measures that have emerged uniquely from a modeling approach, and argue that high priorities for future modeling of SARS and similar respiratory ElDs should include informing quarantine policy and better understanding the impact of population heterogeneity on transmission patterns.

引用

页码：791 / 801

页数：11

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