What are the driving forces of international business cycles?

被引：89

作者：

Crucini, Mario J. ^{[1
,2
]}

Kose, M. Ayhan ^{[3
]}

Otrok, Christopher ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Vanderbilt Univ, Dept Econ, Nashville, TN 37235 USA

[2] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[3] Int Monetary Fund, Res Dept, Washington, DC 20431 USA

[4] Univ Virginia, Dept Econ, Charlottesville, VA 22903 USA

来源：

REVIEW OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS | 2011年 / 14卷 / 01期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

International business cycles; Productivity shocks; Oil prices; Stochastic dynamic general equilibrium; Bayesian estimation; Factor model;

D O I：

10.1016/j.red.2010.09.001

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We examine the driving forces of G-7 business cycles. We decompose national business cycles into common and nation-specific components using a dynamic factor model. We also do this for driving variables found in business cycle models; productivity; measures of fiscal and monetary policy; the terms of trade and oil prices. We find a large common factor in oil prices, productivity, and the terms of trade. Productivity is the main driving force, with other drivers isolated to particular nations or sub-periods. Along these lines, we document shifts in the correlation of the common component of each driver with the overall G-7 cycle. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：156 / 175

页数：20