自由贸易试验区与经济增长——基于准自然实验的实证研究

被引：131

作者：

叶修群

机构：

[1] 江西师范大学商学院

来源：

经济评论 | 2018年 / 04期

关键词：

自由贸易试验区; 经济增长; 双重差分法; 反事实分析;

D O I：

10.19361/j.er.2018.04.02

中图分类号：

F127 [地方经济]; F752.8 [地方对外贸易];

学科分类号：

0202 ; 020202 ;

摘要：

作为深化改革和扩大开放战略中的核心环节,自由贸易试验区(自贸区)对经济增长的重要性不言而喻。本文基于2003年第1季度至2016年第1季度省级面板数据,利用双重差分法实证检验了自贸区对地区经济增长的影响。研究发现设立自贸区显著提高了地区GDP增长率,自贸区的经济增长促进效应存在明显滞后。利用反事实分析法进一步检验自贸区经济增长效应的地区异质性,发现上海和广东自贸区的经济增长促进效应明显,表现为对第三产业的促进效应;天津和福建自贸区的经济增长促进效应不明显,但对第二产业的促进效应明显;自贸区的经济增长促进效应都具有明显的滞后性,这一点在对第二产业和第三产业的促进效应上都有体现。

引用

页码：18 / 30

页数：13

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