NEW VENTURE PLANNING - ROLE OF TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING

A system for the analysis and planning of new ventures is developed which provides a structure for the application of logical, mathematical, and scientific procedures to decision problems which (1) involve a significant portion of an organization's resources, (2) have long term effects on a firm's future success, and (3) are characterized by uncertainty in many of the factors important to the decision. The system is based on a synthesis of various analytical techniques from the fields of technological forecasting, decision analysis, and system dynamics, and provides a general methodology for rank-ordering new venture candidates and determining the resource allocation level required for new venture portfolios designed to achieve long term growth objectives. The role played by technological forecasting in new venture planning and in the selection of engineering projects is discussed.