PROPHECY, REALITY AND UNCERTAINTY IN DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGICAL MODELING

被引：883

作者：

BEVEN, K

机构：

[1] Centre for Research on Environmental Systems and Statistics, Institute of Environmental and Biological Sciences, Lancaster University, Lancaster

来源：

ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES | 1993年 / 16卷 / 01期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会;

关键词：

DISTRIBUTED HYDROLOGICAL MODELS; CALIBRATION; VALIDATION; UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION; VALUE OF DATA; MONTE-CARLO METHODS;

D O I：

10.1016/0309-1708(93)90028-E

中图分类号：

TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];

学科分类号：

081501 ;

摘要：

Difficulties in defining truly mechanistic model structures and difficulties of model calibration and validation suggest that the application of distributed hydrological models is more an exercise in prophecy than prediction. One response to these problems is outlined in terms of a realistic assessment of uncertainty in hydrological prophecy, together with a framework (GLUE) within which such ideas can be implemented. It is suggested that a post-modernistic hydrology will recognise the uncertainties inherent in hydrological modelling and will focus attention on the value of data in conditioning hydrological prophecies.

引用

页码：41 / 51

页数：11

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