CHANGES OF NUMERAIRE, CHANGES OF PROBABILITY MEASURE AND OPTION PRICING

The use of the risk-neutral probability measure has proved to be very powerful for computing the prices of contingent claims in the context of complete markets, or the prices of redundant securities when the assumption of complete markets is relaxed. We show here that many other probability measures can be defined in the same way to solve different asset-pricing problems, in particular option pricing. Moreover, these probability measure changes are in fact associated with numeraire changes; this feature, besides providing a financial interpretation, permits efficient selection of the numeraire appropriate for the pricing of a given contingent claim and also permits exhibition of the hedging portfolio, which is in many respects more important than the valuation itself. The key theorem of general numeraire change is illustrated by many examples, among which the extension to a stochastic interest rates framework of the Margrabe formula, Geske formula, etc.