TIMID CHOICES AND BOLD FORECASTS - A COGNITIVE PERSPECTIVE ON RISK-TAKING

被引：1040

作者：

KAHNEMAN, D ^{[1
]}

LOVALLO, D ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] UNIV CALIF BERKELEY,WALTER A HAAS SCH BUSINESS ADM,BERKELEY,CA 94720

来源：

MANAGEMENT SCIENCE | 1993年 / 39卷 / 01期

关键词：

DECISION MAKING; RISK; FORECASTING; MANAGERIAL COGNITION;

D O I：

10.1287/mnsc.39.1.17

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;

摘要：

Decision makers have a strong tendency to consider problems as unique. They isolate the current choice from future opportunities and neglect the statistics of the past in evaluating current plans. Overly cautious attitudes to risk result from a failure to appreciate the effects of statistical aggregation in mitigating relative risk. Overly optimistic forecasts result from the adoption of an inside view of the problem, which anchors predictions on plans and scenarios. The conflicting biases are documented in psychological research. Possible implications for decision making in organizations are examined.

引用

页码：17 / 31

页数：15

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