ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF AIDS ON THE GROWTH PATH OF THE MALAWIAN ECONOMY

被引：46

作者：

CUDDINGTON, JT ^{[1
]}

HANCOCK, JD ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] UNIV PENN,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104

来源：

JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS | 1994年 / 43卷 / 02期

关键词：

GROWTH MODELS; EPIDEMICS; HIV; AIDS;

D O I：

10.1016/0304-3878(94)90013-2

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

A modified Solow growth model is used to simulate the impact of the AIDS epidemic on output capacity and other key macroeconomic aggregates in Malawi. Comparing a counterfactual no-AIDS scenario to 'medium' and 'extreme' AIDS projections suggests that average real GDP growth over the 1985-2010 period will be 0.2-0.3 (1.2-1.5) percentage points lower in the medium (extreme) case, relative to the no-AIDS case. As a result, the size of the economy by the year 2010 will be reduced from a real GDP of 5.03 billion (constant 1985) Kwacha without AIDS to 4.81-4.77 (3.80-3.46) billion Kwacha in the medium (extreme) scenario.

引用

页码：363 / 368

页数：6