Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

被引:96
作者
Kriegler, Elmar [1 ]
Petermann, Nils [1 ]
Krey, Volker [2 ]
Schwanitz, Valeria Jana [1 ]
Luderer, Gunnar [1 ]
Ashina, Shuichi [3 ]
Bosetti, Valentina [4 ]
Eom, Jiyong [5 ]
Kitous, Alban [6 ]
Mejean, Aurelie [7 ]
Paroussos, Leonidas [8 ]
Sano, Fuminori [9 ]
Turton, Hal [10 ]
Wilson, Charlie [11 ]
Van Vuuren, Detlef P. [12 ,13 ]
机构
[1] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany
[2] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Energy Program, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
[3] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
[4] Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei, Sustainable Dev Programme, Milan, Italy
[5] Pacific Northwest Lab, Joint Global Res Inst, College Pk, MD USA
[6] European Commiss Joint Res Ctr, Seville, Spain
[7] Ctr Int Rech Environm & Dev, Paris, France
[8] Inst Commun & Comp Syst, Athens, Greece
[9] Res Inst Innovat Technol Earth, Kizugawa, Japan
[10] Paul Scherrer Inst, Energy Econ Grp, Villigen, Switzerland
[11] Univ E Anglia, Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England
[12] Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands
[13] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, Bilthoven, Netherlands
关键词
Climate policy; Integrated assessment models; Energy system models; Model diagnostics; Climate change economics; MITIGATION; COSTS;
D O I
10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economy systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. In order to provide insights into why results differ between models, this article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of models. Diagnostics can uncover patterns of model behavior and indicate how results differ between model types. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study of 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity, and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to explain variations among policy-relevant model results. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc.
引用
收藏
页码:45 / 61
页数:17
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