Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003

被引:1231
作者
Stott, PA
Stone, DA
Allen, MR
机构
[1] Univ Reading, Hadley Ctr Climate Predict & Res, Reading Unit, Met Off, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England
[2] Univ Oxford, Dept Phys, Oxford OX1 3PU, England
[3] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford OX1 3PS, England
基金
英国自然环境研究理事会;
关键词
D O I
10.1038/nature03089
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
The summer of 2003 was probably the hottest in Europe since at latest AD 1500(1-4), and unusually large numbers of heat-related deaths were reported in France, Germany and Italy(5). It is an ill-posed question whether the 2003 heatwave was caused, in a simple deterministic sense, by a modification of the external influences on climate-for example, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere-because almost any such weather event might have occurred by chance in an unmodified climate. However, it is possible to estimate by how much human activities may have increased the risk of the occurrence of such a heatwave(6-8). Here we use this conceptual framework to estimate the contribution of human-induced increases in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and other pollutants to the risk of the occurrence of unusually high mean summer temperatures throughout a large region of continental Europe. Using a threshold for mean summer temperature that was exceeded in 2003, but in no other year since the start of the instrumental record in 1851, we estimate it is very likely (confidence level > 90%)(9) that human influence has at least doubled the risk of a heatwave exceeding this threshold-magnitude.
引用
收藏
页码:610 / 614
页数:5
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