Decomposition of aggregate carbon intensity for the manufacturing sector: comparison of declining trends from 10 OECD countries for the period 1971-1991

As with total energy consumption or aggregate energy intensity changes in aggregate carbon intensity may also be decomposed or attributed to changes in various components, including fuel mix for electricity generation, final energy mix, sub-sectoral economic activity and sub-sectoral energy intensities. The Adaptive Weighted Divisia rolling base year index specification is applied to total carbon emissions from the manufacturing sector of 10 OECD countries for the period 1971-1991. Declines in aggregate carbon intensity for these countries range from < 30% to > 70% and may be primarily attributed to decreases in energy intensity, i.e. increases in the average factor productivity of energy. However, these declines in aggregate carbon intensity appear to have a complex linkage to increases in energy prices, as well as changes in other determinants of gross industrial output. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.