The effects of a baby boom on stock prices and capital accumulation in the presence of social security

被引：82

作者：

Abel, AB ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Penn, Wharton Sch, Dept Finance, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA

来源：

ECONOMETRICA | 2003年 / 71卷 / 02期

关键词：

baby boom; social security; stock prices; Golden Rule;

D O I：

10.1111/1468-0262.00417

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Is the stock market boom a result of the baby boom? This paper develops an overlapping generations model in which a baby boom is modeled as a high realization of a random birth rate, and the price of capital is determined endogenously by a convex cost of adjustment. A baby boom increases national saving and investment and thus causes an increase in the price of capital. The price of capital is mean-reverting so the initial increase in the price of capital is followed by a decrease. Social Security can potentially affect national saving and investment, though in the long run, it does not affect the price of capital.

引用

页码：551 / 578

页数：28

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