Hydrodynamic tracking of the massive spring 1998 red tide in Hong Kong

In subtropical coastal waters around Hong Kong, algal blooms and red tides have been frequently observed over the past two decades. In particular, in March-April 1998, a massive red tide invaded the northeastern and southern coastal waters of Hong Kong. The devastating red tide resulted in the worst fish kill in Hong Kong's history, the most significant impacts being at the Lo Tik Wan and Sok Kwu Wan fish culture zones on Lamma Island. This work reports the first scientific investigation of the cause of this massive red tide. A calibrated three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic model for the Pearl River Estuary, Delft3D, is applied to study the advective transport of red tides. Based on the tidal boundary conditions and the measured wind data for a typical spring season, the 3D flow field is computed and extensive surface drogue tracking performed for releases in different parts of the coastal waters and for different tidal and wind conditions. The results show that a bloom initiated in Mirs Bay (Nan Au or Tap Mun) in the northeastern water would likely be transported to the southern coastal waters under the combined action of tidal current and wind. The computed bloom tracking patterns are generally supported by observations and are consistent with the temporal and spatial patterns of individual fish kill events in the 1998 red tide. We conclude that the major cause of the bloom being transported into the southern waters and East Lamma Channel (and causing the massive fish kill) is the generally strong wind in March-April 1998 and the change in wind direction in early April under almost diurnal tidal conditions. Further, it is most probable that the red tide originated in Mirs Bay rather than from outside Hong Kong. The findings provide a firm basis for environmental and fisheries management.