Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design

被引：204

作者：

Mitchell, Daniel ^{[1
,19
]}

AchutaRao, Krishna ^{[2
]}

Allen, Myles ^{[1
,3
]}

Bethke, Ingo ^{[4
]}

Beyerle, Urs ^{[5
]}

Ciavarella, Andrew ^{[6
]}

Forster, Piers M. ^{[7
]}

Fuglestvedt, Jan ^{[8
]}

Gillett, Nathan ^{[9
]}

Haustein, Karsten ^{[1
]}

Ingram, William ^{[3
,6
]}

Iversen, Trond ^{[10
]}

Kharin, Viatcheslav ^{[9
]}

Klingaman, Nicholas ^{[11
]}

Massey, Neil ^{[1
]}

Fischer, Erich ^{[5
]}

Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich ^{[12
,13
]}

Scinocca, John ^{[9
]}

Seland, Oyvind ^{[10
]}

Shiogama, Hideo ^{[14
]}

Shuckburgh, Emily ^{[15
]}

Sparrow, Sarah ^{[16
]}

Stone, Daithi

Uhe, Peter ^{[1
,16
]}

Wallom, David ^{[16
]}

Wehner, Michael ^{[17
]}

Zaaboul, Rashyd ^{[18
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Environm Change Inst, Oxford, England

[2] Indian Inst Technol Delhi, Ctr Atmospher Sci, New Delhi 110016, India

[3] Univ Oxford, AOPP, Oxford, England

[4] Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, Uni Res Climate, Bergen, Norway

[5] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland

[6] Met Off Hadley Ctr Climate Sci & Serv, Exeter, Devon, England

[7] Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England

[8] Ctr Int Climate & Environm Res Oslo CICERO, POB 1129, N-0318 Oslo, Norway

[9] Univ Victoria, Environm & Climate Change Canada, Canadian Ctr Climate Modelling & Anal, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada

[10] Norwegian Meteorol Inst, Oslo, Norway

[11] Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci Climate, Reading, Berks, England

[12] Climate Analyt, Berlin, Germany

[13] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, Potsdam, Germany

[14] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Res, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3058506, Japan

[15] BAS, Madingley Rd, Cambridge, England

[16] Univ Oxford, Oxford E Res Ctr OeRC, Oxford, England

[17] Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA USA

[18] Int Ctr Biosaline Agr, POB 14660, Dubai, U Arab Emirates

[19] Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol, Avon, England

来源：

GEOSCIENTIFIC MODEL DEVELOPMENT | 2017年 / 10卷 / 02期

基金：

英国自然环境研究理事会;

关键词：

1.5; DEGREES-C; PARIS AGREEMENT; CLIMATE-CHANGE; MODEL; ATTRIBUTION; SCIENCE; CMIP5;

D O I：

10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the present day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0 degrees C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios. Large ensembles of simulations (> 50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006-2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2 degrees C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5 degrees C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2 degrees C scenario.

引用

页码：571 / 583

页数：13

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