DRAMs as model organisms for study of technological evolution

被引：25

作者：

Victor, NM ^{[1
]}

Ausubel, JH ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Rockefeller Univ, Program Human Environm, New York, NY 10021 USA

来源：

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE | 2002年 / 69卷 / 03期

关键词：

technological substitution; learning curves;

D O I：

10.1016/S0040-1625(01)00149-4

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

The short, well-documented market life of generations of dynamic random access memory (DRAM)computer chips makes them an excellent "model organism," like the fruit fly, for study of evolution, in this case technological. Using classic models of logistic growth, substitution, and learning, we examine the global dynamics of eight generations of DRAMs and forecast the market characteristics of the next DRAM generations. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：243 / 262

页数：20

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