Assessing the effects of an early retirement program

We investigate induced retirement effects of the Norwegian early retirement program "AFP" and emphasize effects caused by relocations of some individuals from disability pension and unemployment to AFP. Theoretical considerations predict that AFP unambiguously induces more early retirement. Analyzing Norwegian register data 1994-96 with parametric and non-parametric methods, we demonstrate that i) economic incentives influence the retirement decision, ii) there is a significant net induced retirement effect, iii) by a conservative judgment, at least 50% of the AFP retirees would have stayed in the labor force without the scheme.