Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus-Infected Pneumonia

被引：5998

作者：

Li, Qun ^{[1
]}

Guan, Xuhua ^{[2
]}

Wu, Peng ^{[3
]}

Wang, Xiaoye ^{[1
]}

Zhou, Lei ^{[1
]}

Tong, Yeqing ^{[2
]}

Ren, Ruiqi ^{[1
]}

Leung, Kathy S. M. ^{[3
]}

Lau, Eric H. Y. ^{[3
]}

Wong, Jessica Y. ^{[3
]}

Xing, Xuesen ^{[2
]}

Xiang, Nijuan ^{[1
]}

Wu, Yang ^{[2
]}

Li, Chao ^{[1
]}

Chen, Qi ^{[2
]}

Li, Dan ^{[1
]}

Liu, Tian ^{[4
,5
]}

Zhao, Jing ^{[1
]}

Liu, Man ^{[2
]}

Tu, Wenxiao ^{[1
]}

Chen, Chuding ^{[2
]}

Jin, Lianmei ^{[1
]}

Yang, Rui ^{[2
,4
]}

Wang, Qi ^{[1
]}

Zhou, Suhua ^{[2
,4
]}

Wang, Rui ^{[1
]}

Liu, Hui ^{[4
,6
]}

Luo, Yinbo ^{[2
]}

Liu, Yuan ^{[4
,7
]}

Shao, Ge ^{[4
,8
]}

Li, Huan ^{[4
,9
]}

Tao, Zhongfa ^{[4
,10
]}

Yang, Yang ^{[11
]}

Deng, Zhiqiang ^{[12
]}

Liu, Boxi ^{[13
]}

Ma, Zhitao ^{[14
]}

Zhang, Yanping ^{[1
]}

Shi, Guoqing ^{[1
]}

Lam, Tommy T. Y. ^{[3
]}

Wu, Joseph T. ^{[3
]}

Gao, George F. ^{[1
]}

Cowling, Benjamin J. ^{[3
]}

Yang, Bo ^{[2
]}

Leung, Gabriel M. ^{[3
]}

Feng, Zijian ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, 155 Changbai Rd, Beijing, Peoples R China

[2] Hubei Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Wuhan, Hubei, Peoples R China

[3] Univ Hong Kong, Sch Publ Hlth, World Hlth Org, Collaborating Ctr Infect Dis Epidemiol & Control, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[4] Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Chinese Field Epidemiol Training Program, Beijing, Peoples R China

[5] Jingzhou Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Jingzhou, Hubei, Peoples R China

[6] Chengdu Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Chengdu, Sichuan, Peoples R China

[7] Hunan Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R China

[8] Anyang Municipal Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Anyang, Henan, Peoples R China

[9] Panjin Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Panjin, Liaoning, Peoples R China

[10] Guizhou Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Guiyang, Guizhou, Peoples R China

[11] Jiading Dist Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Shanghai, Peoples R China

[12] Nanchang Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Nanchang, Jiangxi, Peoples R China

[13] Inner Mongolia Comprehens Ctr Dis Control & Preve, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, Peoples R China

[14] Baoshan Dist Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Shanghai, Peoples R China

来源：

NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE | 2020年 / 382卷 / 13期

关键词：

SARS; MERS;

D O I：

10.1056/NEJMoa2001316

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学];

学科分类号：

1002 ; 100201 ;

摘要：

BackgroundThe initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)-infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the first 425 confirmed cases in Wuhan to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of NCIP. MethodsWe collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by January 22, 2020. We described characteristics of the cases and estimated the key epidemiologic time-delay distributions. In the early period of exponential growth, we estimated the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number. ResultsAmong the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9). ConclusionsOn the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Measures to prevent or reduce transmission should be implemented in populations at risk. (Funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and others.) The authors provide an epidemiologic analysis of the first 425 confirmed cases of infection with the novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. This analysis provides estimates of the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number and shows clear evidence of sustained human-to-human transmission.

引用

页码：1199 / 1207

页数：9

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