Fiscal sustainability: The unpleasant European case

被引：139

作者：

Afonso, A

机构：

[1] Univ Tecn Lisboa, Dept Econ, P-1249078 Lisbon, Portugal

[2] Univ Tecn Lisboa, CISEP, Res Ctr Portuguese Econ, ISEG,UTL, P-1249078 Lisbon, Portugal

[3] Directorate Gen Econ, D-60311 Frankfurt, Germany

来源：

FINANZARCHIV | 2005年 / 61卷 / 01期

关键词：

budget deficit; intertemporal budget constraint; fiscal policy sustainability; European Union;

D O I：

10.1628/0015221053722532

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

The sustainability of fiscal deficits has been receiving increasing attention. The issue is paramount for the newly formed euro area, and that is one of the motivations of this paper. In order to assess the sustainability of budget deficits, cointegration tests between public expenditures and public revenues, allowing for structural breaks, are performed for the EU-15 countries for the 1970-2003 period. The "unpleasant" empirical results show that with few exceptions fiscal policy may not have been sustainable. EU governments therefore may risk becoming inherently highly indebted, even though the debt-to-GDP ratios seemed to be somehow stabilizing at the end of the 1990s.

引用

页码：19 / 44

页数：26

共 60 条

[1] Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data? [J].