Political instability and inflation volatility

被引:55
作者
Aisen, Ari [3 ]
Veiga, Francisco Jose [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Minho, Escola Econ & Gestao, P-4710057 Braga, Portugal
[2] NIPE, P-4710057 Braga, Portugal
[3] Int Monetary Fund, Asia & Pacific Dept, Washington, DC 20431 USA
关键词
inflation; volatility; political instability; institutions;
D O I
10.1007/s11127-007-9254-x
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
The purpose of this paper is to empirically analyze the effects of political instability, social polarization and the quality of institutions on inflation volatility over time and across countries. Using the system-GMM estimator for linear dynamic panel data models on a sample covering 160 countries, analyzed in the period from 1960 to 1999, this paper finds that higher degrees of political instability and social polarization, less democracy, and lower de facto central bank independence are associated with more volatile inflation rates. Furthermore, political instability has greater effects on inflation volatility in developing countries with lower degrees of central bank independence and economic freedom.
引用
收藏
页码:207 / 223
页数:17
相关论文
共 33 条
[1]   Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth [J].
Acemoglu, D ;
Johnson, S ;
Robinson, J ;
Thaicharoen, Y .
JOURNAL OF MONETARY ECONOMICS, 2003, 50 (01) :49-123
[2]  
AISEN A, 2005, 05175 IMF
[3]   Does political instability lead to higher inflation? A panel data analysis [J].
Aisen, Ari ;
Veiga, Francisco Jose .
JOURNAL OF MONEY CREDIT AND BANKING, 2006, 38 (05) :1379-1389
[4]  
[Anonymous], 2001, CESIFO WORKING PAPER
[5]   SOME TESTS OF SPECIFICATION FOR PANEL DATA - MONTE-CARLO EVIDENCE AND AN APPLICATION TO EMPLOYMENT EQUATIONS [J].
ARELLANO, M ;
BOND, S .
REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES, 1991, 58 (02) :277-297
[6]   ANOTHER LOOK AT THE INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE ESTIMATION OF ERROR-COMPONENTS MODELS [J].
ARELLANO, M ;
BOVER, O .
JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS, 1995, 68 (01) :29-51
[7]  
ARMONE M, 2006, WP06228 IMF
[8]  
Baltagi H.B., 2001, ECONOMETRIC ANAL PAN
[9]  
Barro R. J., 2003, Economic growth, V2nd
[10]   Central bank independence: An update of theory and evidence [J].
Berger, H ;
de Haan, J ;
Eijffinger, SCW .
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC SURVEYS, 2001, 15 (01) :3-40