An estimate of regional and global O3 damage from precursor NOx and VOC emissions

The results of the ozone models of EMEP and Harwell are combined with the C-R (concentration- response) functions and economic valuation recommended by the ExternE Project of the European Commission. The paper is exploratory, to assemble the available information, establish likely priority impact categories, and make recommendations for future research. Impacts on health and agriculture are-evaluated. Based on the EMEP results, aggregate regional (Europe-wide) estimates of ozone damage, allocated per ton of precursor emission, are derived. Calculations on the global scale, using results from the Harwell Global Ozone Model (and the same valuation per nL/L O-3) indicate that damages outside Europe are likely to also be significant although somewhat smaller. For the EMEP Model, the numbers per ton of precursor emission are approximately the same for NOx and for VOC. For NOx, a value around $1875 (uncertainty range 375 to 10000) per Mg-NO2equi was found; for VOC, approximately $1100 per Mg-VOC was found. There is much uncertainty, especially in the C-R: functions, and current assessments of ozone damages are, at best, order of magnitude estimates. Even though the overlap between local, regional, and global models is not clear, the results suggest that ozone damage is dominated by regional impacts. (C)1998 Elsevier Science Ltd.