Forecasting the path of China's CO2 emissions using province-level information

被引：398

作者：

Auffhammer, Maximilian ^{[1
]}

Carson, Richard T. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[2] Univ Calif San Diego, San Diego, CA 92103 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT | 2008年 / 55卷 / 03期

关键词：

forecasting; climate change; China; model selection; carbon dioxide;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jeem.2007.10.002

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Our results suggest that the anticipated path of China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions has dramatically increased over the last five years. The magnitude of the projected increase in Chinese emissions out to 2010 is several times larger than reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol. Our estimates are based on a unique provincial-level panel data set from the Chinese Environmental Protection Agency. This data set contains considerably more information relevant to the path of likely Chinese greenhouse gas emissions than national level time series currently in use. Model selection criteria clearly reject the popular static environmental Kuznets curve specification in favor of a class of dynamic models with spatial dependence. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：229 / 247

页数：19

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