BLAME AVOIDANCE IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE: REACTIVITY, STAGED RETREAT AND EFFICACY

Building on blame avoidance analysis, this article develops a method to assess the reactivity, sequencing and efficacy of defensive responses by officeholders facing a crisis of personal blame, analysing cases drawn from four advanced democracies. It tests the hypotheses that officeholders: react by positive action rather than non-engagement when blame levels are high; respond in a 'staged retreat' sequence; and can reduce the level of blame they face from one day to another through choice of presentational strategies. The article applies event history analysis to test the sequencing hypothesis and time series cross-sectional models to test the reactivity and efficacy hypotheses. The analysis shows that officeholders tend to respond actively when blame levels are high, that to some extent their responses tend to follow a staged retreat pattern, and their interventions have a systematic effect on the next day's media blame level only if they take the form of personal statements.