Recent trends in nonmetropolitan migration: Toward a new turnaround?

Over the past 30 years there have been three unanticipated shifts in metropolitan-nonmetropolitan population change and migration: the nonmetropolitan turnaround of the 1970s, with a migration balance favoring nonmetropolitan areas; the downturn of the early 1980s when nonmetropolitan areas lost net migrants as they did in the 1960s, and a more recent post-1990 recovery, with nonmetropolitan net migration rates once again above those of metropolitan areas. Partial explanations have been developed from the deconcentration and regional restructuring theoretical perspectives, but there is not yet consensus on how to explain this sequence of three migration changes since 1970. There is a need for a general review of these trends, particularly given the recency of the latest change. Such a review is attempted here. Annual net migration estimates are examined, considering the changing metropolitan-nonmetropolitan differential, and differences across geographic and functional county types in nonmetropolitan areas. Some differences stand out across the 24-year period, but the most notable finding is the widespread nature of the turnaround, the reversal, and the current recovery. There are differences between the present and the 1970s, but a trend toward greater retention and/or acquisition of people in rural and small town areas is clear.