Evaluating the PCPT risk calculator in ten international biopsy cohorts: results from the Prostate Biopsy Collaborative Group

被引：53

作者：

Ankerst, Donna P. ^{[1
,2
]}

Boeck, Andreas ^{[2
]}

Freedland, Stephen J. ^{[3
,4
]}

Thompson, Ian M. ^{[1
]}

Cronin, Angel M. ^{[5
]}

Roobol, Monique J. ^{[6
]}

Hugosson, Jonas ^{[7
]}

Jones, J. Stephen ^{[8
]}

Kattan, Michael W. ^{[8
]}

Klein, Eric A. ^{[8
]}

Hamdy, Freddie ^{[9
]}

Neal, David ^{[10
]}

Donovan, Jenny

Parekh, Dipen J. ^{[1
]}

Klocker, Helmut ^{[11
]}

Horninger, Wolfgang ^{[11
]}

Benchikh, Amine ^{[12
]}

Salama, Gilles ^{[13
]}

Villers, Arnauld ^{[14
]}

Moreira, Daniel M. ^{[3
,4
]}

Schroder, Fritz H. ^{[6
]}

Lilja, Hans ^{[5
]}

Vickers, Andrew J. ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Texas Hlth Sci Ctr San Antonio, Dept Urol, San Antonio, TX 78229 USA

[2] Tech Univ Munich, D-8046 Garching, Germany

[3] Durham VA Med Ctr, Durham, NC USA

[4] Duke Univ, Durham, NC USA

[5] Mem Sloan Kettering Canc Ctr, New York, NY 10021 USA

[6] Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, Netherlands

[7] Sahlgrens Univ Hosp, Gothenburg, Sweden

[8] Cleveland Clin, Cleveland, OH 44106 USA

[9] Univ Oxford, Oxford, England

[10] Univ Cambridge, Cambridge, England

[11] Innsbruck Med Univ, Innsbruck, Austria

[12] Hop Bichat Claude Bernard, F-75877 Paris 18, France

[13] Ctr Hosp Intercommunal Castres Mazamet, Castres, France

[14] CHRU Lille, Hop Huriez, Lille, France

来源：

WORLD JOURNAL OF UROLOGY | 2012年 / 30卷 / 02期

关键词：

Receiver operating characteristic curve; Risk; prostate cancer; Calibration; Net benefit; CANCER RISK; ANTIGEN;

D O I：

10.1007/s00345-011-0818-5

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学]; R69 [泌尿科学（泌尿生殖系疾病）];

学科分类号：

1002 ; 100201 ;

摘要：

To evaluate the discrimination, calibration, and net benefit performance of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator (PCPTRC) across five European randomized study of screening for prostate cancer (ERSPC), 1 United Kingdom, 1 Austrian, and 3 US biopsy cohorts. PCPTRC risks were calculated for 25,733 biopsies using prostate-specific antigen (PSA), digital rectal examination, family history, history of prior biopsy, and imputation for missing covariates. Predictions were evaluated using the areas underneath the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC), discrimination slopes, chi-square tests of goodness of fit, and net benefit decision curves. AUCs of the PCPTRC ranged from a low of 56% in the ERSPC Goeteborg Rounds 2-6 cohort to a high of 72% in the ERSPC Goeteborg Round 1 cohort and were statistically significantly higher than that of PSA in 6 out of the 10 cohorts. The PCPTRC was well calibrated in the SABOR, Tyrol, and Durham cohorts. There was limited to no net benefit to using the PCPTRC for biopsy referral compared to biopsying all or no men in all five ERSPC cohorts and benefit within a limited range of risk thresholds in all other cohorts. External validation of the PCPTRC across ten cohorts revealed varying degree of success highly dependent on the cohort, most likely due to different criteria for and work-up before biopsy. Future validation studies of new calculators for prostate cancer should acknowledge the potential impact of the specific cohort studied when reporting successful versus failed validation.

引用

页码：181 / 187

页数：7

共 18 条

[1] Predicting prostate cancer risk through incorporation of prostate cancer gene 3 [J].