Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system

被引:2171
作者
Lenton, Timothy M. [1 ,2 ]
Held, Hermann [3 ]
Kriegler, Elmar [3 ,4 ]
Hall, Jim W. [5 ,6 ]
Lucht, Wolfgang [3 ]
Rahmstorf, Stefan [3 ]
Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim [1 ,2 ,3 ,7 ,8 ]
机构
[1] Univ E Anglia, Sch Environm Sci, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England
[2] Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Norwich NR4 7TJ, Norfolk, England
[3] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
[4] Carnegie Mellon Univ, Dept Engn & Publ Policy, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 USA
[5] Univ Newcastle, Sch Civil Engn & Geosci, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England
[6] Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Newcastle Upon Tyne NE1 7RU, Tyne & Wear, England
[7] Univ Oxford, Environm Change Inst, Oxford OX1 3QY, England
[8] Tyndall Ctr Climate Change Res, Oxford OX1 3QY, England
基金
英国自然环境研究理事会;
关键词
earth system; tipping points; climate change; large-scale impacts; climate policy;
D O I
10.1073/pnas.0705414105
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
The term "tipping point" commonly refers to a critical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of a system. Here we introduce the term "tipping element" to describe large-scale components of the Earth system that may pass a tipping point. We critically evaluate potential policy-relevant tipping elements in the climate system under anthropogenic forcing, drawing on the pertinent literature and a recent international workshop to compile a short list, and we assess where their tipping points lie. An expert elicitation is used to help rank their sensitivity to global warming and the uncertainty about the underlying physical mechanisms. Then we explain how, in principle, early warning systems could be established to detect the proximity of some tipping points.
引用
收藏
页码:1786 / 1793
页数:8
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