Urbanization, sustainability and the utilization of energy and mineral resources in China

This paper analyzes a model depicting the trend of Chinese urbanization and explores relationships between urbanization and the supply and demand of major energy and mineral resources and between the gross domestic product (GDP) and the urbanization of China. Then it predicts China's supply and demand trends from 2005 to 2050. It is predicted that until 2010 China's GDP and urbanization will grow at high speed, slowing slightly yet still growing strongly on to 2050. It also argues that the supply of cement, steel, aluminum and coal and the demand of timber, cement and steel have significant effects on urbanization. The paper concludes that China will inevitably face a long shortage of resources if future urbanization is faster than predicted, i.e., China cannot meet the targets of the current urbanization strategy while continuing current energy and resource consumption for its industrialization and modernization. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.