An alternative analysis of apparent EKC-type transitions

The hypothesis of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) depends upon the assumption that countries pass through a similar environmental impact trajectory as they experience income growth, implying that income levels determine pollution levels. The authors present evidence that this is not representative of the way many individual country's pollution emission trajectories evolve and question the emphasis on 'income determinism' by the EKC. The study proposes that nonlinear dynamic systems analysis provides a more complete description of individual country pollution trajectories. In the case of CO2 emissions, the nonlinear time trajectories show abrupt transitions that occur contemporaneously with historical events and over a broad range of incomes. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.