Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?

被引：102

作者：

Blanchard, Olivier ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Peterson Inst Int Econ, Washington, DC 20036 USA

[2] MIT, Econ Emeritus, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES | 2018年 / 32卷 / 01期

关键词：

UNEMPLOYMENT;

D O I：

10.1257/jep.32.1.97

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Fifty years ago, Milton Friedman articulated the natural rate hypothesis. It was composed of two sub-hypotheses: First, the natural rate of unemployment is independent of monetary policy. Second, there is no long-run trade-off between the deviation of unemployment from the natural rate and inflation. Both propositions have been challenged. The paper reviews the arguments and the macro and micro evidence against each. It concludes that, in each case, the evidence is suggestive, but not conclusive. Policymakers should keep the natural rate hypothesis as their null hypothesis, but keep an open mind and put some weight on the alternatives.

引用

页码：97 / 119

页数：23