Containing pandemic influenza at the source

被引:825
作者
Longini, IM
Nizam, A
Xu, SF
Ungchusak, K
Hanshaoworakul, W
Cummings, DAT
Halloran, ME
机构
[1] Emory Univ, Rollins Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Biostat, Atlanta, GA 30322 USA
[2] Johns Hopkins Univ, Bloomberg Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Int Hlth, Baltimore, MD USA
[3] Minist Publ Hlth, Nonthaburi, Thailand
关键词
D O I
10.1126/science.1115717
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (subtype H5N1) is threatening to cause a human pandemic of potentially devastating proportions. We used a stochastic influenza simulation model for rural Southeast Asia to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, quarantine, and pre-vaccination in containing an emerging influenza strain at the source. If the basic reproductive number (R-o) was below 1.60, our simulations showed that a prepared response with targeted antivirals would have a high probability of containing the disease, In that case, an antiviral agent stockpile on the order of 100,000 to 1 million courses for treatment and prophylaxis would be sufficient. If pre-vaccination occurred, then targeted antiviral prophylaxis. could be effective for containing strains with an R-o as high as 2.1. Combinations of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, pre-vaccination, and quarantine could contain strains with an R-o as high as 2.4.
引用
收藏
页码:1083 / 1087
页数:5
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