Observational limits to source confusion in the millimetre/submillimetre waveband

The first observations to detect a population of distant galaxies directly in the submillimetre waveband have recently been made using the new Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array (SCUBA) on the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope (JCMT). The results indicate that a large number of distant galaxies are radiating strongly in this waveband. Here we discuss their significance for source confusion in future millimetre/submillimetre-wave observations of both distant galaxies and cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) anisotropies. Earlier estimates of such confusion involved significant extrapolation of the results of observations of galaxies at low redshifts; our new estimates do not, as they are derived from direct observations of distant galaxies in the submillimetre waveband. The results have important consequences for the design and operation of existing and proposed millimetre/submillimetre-wave telescopes: the Planck Surveyor survey will be confusion-limited at frequencies greater than 350 GHz, even in the absence of Galactic dust emission; a 1 sigma confusion noise limit of about 0.44 mJy beam(-1) is expected for the JCMT/SCUBA at a wavelength of 850 mu m; and the subarcsecond resolution of large millimetre/submillimetrewave interferometer arrays will be required in order to execute very deep galaxy surveys.