Strengthening of ocean heat uptake efficiency associated with the recent climate hiatus

被引:107
作者
Watanabe, Masahiro [1 ]
Kamae, Youichi [2 ]
Yoshimori, Masakazu [1 ]
Oka, Akira [1 ]
Sato, Makiko [3 ,4 ]
Ishii, Masayoshi [5 ]
Mochizuki, Takashi [6 ]
Kimoto, Masahide [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Tokyo, Atmosphere & Ocean Res Inst, Kashiwa, Chiba 2778568, Japan
[2] Natl Inst Environm Studies, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
[3] NASA, Goddard Inst Space Studies, New York, NY 10025 USA
[4] Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, New York, NY USA
[5] Japan Meteorol Agcy, Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
[6] Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan
关键词
climate hiatus; ocean heat uptake; GCM; surface temperature; energy budget; AOGCM;
D O I
10.1002/grl.50541
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
The rate of increase of global-mean surface air temperature (SAT(g)) has apparently slowed during the last decade. We investigated the extent to which state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) can capture this hiatus period by using multimodel ensembles of historical climate simulations. While the SAT(g) linear trend for the last decade is not captured by their ensemble means regardless of differences in model generation and external forcing, it is barely represented by an 11-member ensemble of a GCM, suggesting an internal origin of the hiatus associated with active heat uptake by the oceans. Besides, we found opposite changes in ocean heat uptake efficiency (), weakening in models and strengthening in nature, which explain why the models tend to overestimate the SAT(g) trend. The weakening of commonly found in GCMs seems to be an inevitable response of the climate system to global warming, suggesting the recovery from hiatus in coming decades.
引用
收藏
页码:3175 / 3179
页数:5
相关论文
共 36 条
[1]   Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models [J].
Andrews, Timothy ;
Gregory, Jonathan M. ;
Webb, Mark J. ;
Taylor, Karl E. .
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2012, 39
[2]   Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content [J].
Balmaseda, Magdalena A. ;
Trenberth, Kevin E. ;
Kaellen, Erland .
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2013, 40 (09) :1754-1759
[3]   Deep ocean heat uptake as a major source of spread in transient climate change simulations [J].
Boe, J. ;
Hall, A. ;
Qu, X. .
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2009, 36
[4]   Is the climate warming or cooling? [J].
Easterling, David R. ;
Wehner, Michael F. .
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2009, 36
[5]   Quantifying the sources of spread in climate change experiments [J].
Geoffroy, O. ;
Saint-Martin, D. ;
Ribes, A. .
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2012, 39
[6]   Human-induced global ocean warming on multidecadal timescales [J].
Gleckler, P. J. ;
Santer, B. D. ;
Domingues, C. M. ;
Pierce, D. W. ;
Barnett, T. P. ;
Church, J. A. ;
Taylor, K. E. ;
AchutaRao, K. M. ;
Boyer, T. P. ;
Ishii, M. ;
Caldwell, P. M. .
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, 2012, 2 (07) :524-529
[7]   Vertical heat transports in the ocean and their effect an time-dependent climate change [J].
Gregory, JM .
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2000, 16 (07) :501-515
[8]   The climate response to CO2 of the Hadley Centre coupled AOGCM with and without flux adjustment [J].
Gregory, JM ;
Mitchell, JFB .
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 1997, 24 (15) :1943-1946
[9]   Retrospective prediction of the global warming slowdown in the past decade [J].
Guemas V. ;
Doblas-Reyes F.J. ;
Andreu-Burillo I. ;
Asif M. .
Nature Climate Change, 2013, 3 (7) :649-653
[10]   GLOBAL SURFACE TEMPERATURE CHANGE [J].
Hansen, J. ;
Ruedy, R. ;
Sato, M. ;
Lo, K. .
REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS, 2010, 48