The persistence of risk-adjusted mutual fund performance

We examine predictability for stock mutual funds using risk-adjusted returns, We find that past performance is predictive of future risk-adjusted performance. Applying modern portfolio theory techniques to past data improves selection and allows us to construct a portfolio of funds that significantly outperforms a rule based on past rank alone. In addition, we can form a combination of actively managed portfolios with the same risk as a portfolio of index funds but with higher mean return. The portfolios selected have small but statistically significant positive risk-adjusted returns during a period where mutual funds in general had negative risk-adjusted returns.