How important is past analyst forecast accuracy?

The Wall Street journal rates analysis on the basis of past earnings forecast accuracy, These analyst ratings are important to practitioners who believe that past accuracy portends future accuracy. Aii alternative way to assess the likelihood of "more" or "less" accurate forecasts hi the future is to model the analyst characteristics related to the accuracy of individual analysts' earnings forecasts. No evidence yet exists, however, as to whether an analyst characteristics model is better than a past accuracy model for distinguishing more accurate from less accurate earnings forecasters. I show that a simple model of past accuracy performs as well for this purpose as a more complex model based on analyst characteristics. The findings are robust to annual mid quarterly forecasts and pertain to estimation and prediction tests. The evidence suggests that practitioners' focus mi past accuracy is not misplaced: It is as important as five analyst characteristics combined.