Evidence on the impact of sustained exposure to air pollution on life expectancy from China's Huai River policy

被引:1489
作者
Chen, Yuyu [1 ]
Ebenstein, Avraham [2 ]
Greenstone, Michael [3 ,4 ]
Li, Hongbin [5 ,6 ]
机构
[1] Peking Univ, Appl Econ Dept, Guanghua Sch Management, Beijing 100871, Peoples R China
[2] Hebrew Univ Jerusalem, Dept Econ, IL-91905 Mt Scopus, Israel
[3] MIT, Dept Econ, Cambridge, MA 02142 USA
[4] Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA
[5] Tsinghua Univ, China Data Ctr, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China
[6] Tsinghua Univ, Dept Econ, Sch Econ & Management, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
airborne particulate matter; unintended consequences of policy; premature mortality; health costs of coal combustion; Chinese environmental quality; STROKE MORTALITY; UNITED-STATES; UTAH VALLEY; CITIES;
D O I
10.1073/pnas.1300018110
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
This paper's findings suggest that an arbitrary Chinese policy that greatly increases total suspended particulates (TSPs) air pollution is causing the 500 million residents of Northern China to lose more than 2.5 billion life years of life expectancy. The quasi-experimental empirical approach is based on China's Huai River policy, which provided free winter heating via the provision of coal for boilers in cities north of the Huai River but denied heat to the south. Using a regression discontinuity design based on distance from the Huai River, we find that ambient concentrations of TSPs are about 184 mu g/m(3) [95% confidence interval (CI): 61, 307] or 55% higher in the north. Further, the results indicate that life expectancies are about 5.5 y (95% CI: 0.8, 10.2) lower in the north owing to an increased incidence of cardiorespiratory mortality. More generally, the analysis suggests that long-term exposure to an additional 100 mu g/m(3) of TSPs is associated with a reduction in life expectancy at birth of about 3.0 y (95% CI: 0.4, 5.6).
引用
收藏
页码:12936 / 12941
页数:6
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