CATASTROPHIC NATURAL DISASTERS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

被引：619

作者：

Cavallo, Eduardo ^{[1
]}

Galiani, Sebastian ^{[2
]}

Noy, Ilan ^{[3
,4
]}

Pantano, Juan ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Interamer Dev Bank, Washington, DC USA

[2] Univ Maryland, College Pk, MD 20742 USA

[3] Univ Hawaii, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA

[4] Victoria Univ Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand

[5] Washington Univ, St Louis, MO 63130 USA

来源：

REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS | 2013年 / 95卷 / 05期

关键词：

RARE DISASTERS; IMPACT;

D O I：

10.1162/REST_a_00413

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We examine the average causal impact of catastrophic natural disasters on economic growth by combining information from comparative case studies. For each country affected by a large disaster, we compute the counterfactual by constructing synthetic controls. We find that only extremely large disasters have a negative effect on output in both the short and the long runs. However, we also show that this results from two events where radical political revolutions followed the disasters. Once we control for these political changes, even extremely large disasters do not display any significant effect on economic growth.

引用

页码：1549 / 1561

页数：13

共 31 条

[1] The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque Country [J].