中国国有企业不良负债的实证分析

This Paper,based on data collected in 800 SOEs in China,estimates non performing debts(NPD) and gives an analysis of the causes of NPD in SOEs.The ratio of NPD(NPD/Total loans) of selected enterprises in 1995 is 22%,which approximates to the estimate made unofficially by research departments under banks.The estimated rate of slacken loans and the rate of dead loans of selected enterprises is 12 7% and 9 3% respectively,which is higher than the 4% and the 2% published officially.The causes for NPD in SOEs analysis demonstrates are different from the popular understanding. 1.The main cause of over heavy burden of liability on SOEs is not lack of direct financial sources.SOEs are more pleased to choose loans from banks than from direct finance sources.This shows SOEs' strong preference for bank loans. 2.The high interest rate of the high liability rate is not the primary reasons for losses of SOEs.The high debt rate is the result of SOEs' freewill choice at the advantage of getting sufficient loans from banks. 3.SOEs prefer maintaining high debts instead of repaying loans.The ease of the pressure on repayment of enterprises by government and banks and the softening of self restraint on the loan repayment by SOEs relate with deep rooted system problems such as mixed government and enterprise functions,and unclear property rights.