中国转轨时期经济增长周期的基本特征及其解释模型

In this article I will, with the help of modern econometric techniques and case studies, examine the nature of growth trend demonstrated since China adopted the policy of reform and opening to the outside world, of the principal aggregate indicators of GDP, investment and consumption, and on this basis, draw a proper distinction between trends of those aggregate indicators. And on this ground this paper will chiefly inquire into and analyze the basic characteristics of the cyclic fluctuation of economic growth in China's economic transition, fixing in rough the average length of China's economic growth as something like 9 years in terms of Clement Juglar's cyclic fluctuation theory. Considering this typical fact and using for reference the related theory of dynamic non-equilibrium economics, in this article I will try, by the construction of the pattern of investment cycle of fixed assets, to explain the main mechanisms form this economic cycle.