消费者自述偏好与实际选择的矛盾:中国汽车市场的实证研究

被引：16

作者：

金英 ^{[1
]}

苏萌 ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] 北京大学光华管理学院商务统计与经济计量系

[2] 北京大学光华管理学院市场营销系

来源：

管理世界 | 2010年 / 01期

关键词：

汽车品牌偏好; 自述偏好与实际选择的矛盾; 分层Bayes方法;

D O I：

10.19744/j.cnki.11-1235/f.2010.01.012

中图分类号：

F426.471 [];

学科分类号：

020205 ; 0202 ;

摘要：

消费者在购买前的自述偏好(SP)常常与实际选择(RP)矛盾,自述偏好的可靠性因而经常受到质疑。企业管理者很难明确哪些消费者的自述偏好能够反映其未来实际选择。识别影响自述偏好和实际选择不一致的因素,将有助于判断消费者自述偏好的可靠程度,提高自述偏好数据的可用性。以往研究侧重于对消费者总体层次的研究,没有考虑消费者的个体差异。本文采用分层Bayes模型,对自述偏好和实际选择的不一致性进行消费者个体层次的研究。本研究应用于一项针对北京地区汽车消费者的两阶段调查数据。模型比较表明,个体层次的模型比总体层次的模型能够更好地拟合数据和进行样本外预测。研究发现家庭收入和家庭人口等家庭特征因素能够调节解释变量对SP-RP是否一致的影响。

引用

页码：98 / 106+121 +121

页数：10

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