垂直专业化与危机中的贸易下滑

被引：21

作者：

倪红福 ^{[1
]}

夏杰长 ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] 中国社会科学院财经战略研究院服务经济研究室

[2] 中国社会科学院财经战略研究院

来源：

世界经济 | 2016年 / 39卷 / 04期

关键词：

中间产品贸易; 垂直专业化; 全球投入产出模型; 增加值贸易;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

F746 [世界进出口贸易概况];

学科分类号：

020206 ; 1202 ; 020202 ;

摘要：

本文通过全球投入产出模型研究发现:若全球生产网络体系正常运转,垂直关联并没有放大外生最终需求冲击对全球贸易下滑的影响,反而在一定程度上缓解了全球贸易下滑。中间产品贸易的下降幅度远低于最终需求产品贸易,但因权重为2/3,其贡献率较大(49%以上);非垂直专业化值与垂直专业化值的下降幅度基本一致,因后者权重较小,其对全球贸易的贡献率低于28%。进一步比较真实统计数据计算结果表明:一旦供给侧遭到外生冲击,全球生产网络体系遭到破坏,垂直关联中断,将导致中间产品贸易和垂直专业化贸易大幅下降,进而造成全球贸易大幅下滑。

引用

页码：95 / 119

页数：25

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