Energy system transformation and long-term interest constellations in Denmark: can agency beat structure?

Since the oil crises in the 1970s, Denmark's energy system has evolved from import-and fossil fuel dependency to self-sufficiency with a high share of renewable energy. This transformation has been supported by co-evolving energy policies. A policy shift in 2001 brought a temporary halt to the transformation, which resumed after a return in policy in 2008. Applying public choice-and path-dependency perspectives, this article analyses the development of the Danish energy system and co-evolving policies. Initial structural characteristics have strong explanatory power for the long-term policy trend: de-central ownership, and entrepreneurship have given local-level actors leverage as a political constituency. Over time de-central small-scale solutions (like windpower and district heating) secured generous state aid. Local-level actors provided technology solutions offering broad opportunities. One consequence was strong support for de-central technology solutions. The first policy shift is explained by a new government that advocated dismantling state regulation, subsidies and taxes, supported by a new political majority. The second policy shift is explained by mobilization of interests that had grown to include actors that generally supported de-regulation but saw their commercial interests threatened. The Danish model has inspired similar transformations elsewhere and offers lessons on how to overcome resistance to change. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.