DID PROGNOSIS AFTER ACUTE MYOCARDIAL-INFARCTION CHANGE DURING THE PAST 30 YEARS - A METAANALYSIS

Much effort has been spent to improve survival after acute myocardial infarction. To investigate how effective this effort has been, a meta-analysis was performed of studies published between 1960 and 1987 concerning mortality after acute myocardial infarction. Thirty-six studies were analyzed. They were classified with respect to deaths in the hospital and at 1 month and the 5-year mortality rate starting at hospital discharge. Mortality was assessed from all studies by comparing studies from different institutions with use of identical inclusion criteria (externally controlled studies) and by analyzing studies reporting on changes in mortality in two or more comparable patient cohorts admitted to the same institution at different time periods (internally controlled studies). Reports on clinical trials (for example, thrombolytic therapy, beta-adrenergic blockade) in acute myocardial infarction were excluded. Average overall in-hospital mortality decreased from 29% during the 1960s to 21% during the 1970s and to 16% during the 1980s. The externally controlled studies also showed a declining trend: from 1960 to 1969, 32%, from 1970 to 1979, 19% and from 1980 to 1987, 15%. The 1-month overall mortality rate decreased from 31% during the 1960s to 25% during the 1970s and 18% during the 1980s externally controlled studies. Most internally controlled studies also showed significant improvement in in-hospital and 1-month survival. In contrast, 5-year mortality after hospital discharge did not significantly decrease (33% from 1960 to 1969 and 33% from 1970 to 1979). It is concluded that in the prethrombolytic era, short-term prognosis after acute myocardial infarction has improved since 1960. Changes in long-term prognosis after hospital discharge, however, could not be demonstrated. Information about the effect of thrombolytic therapy and early revascularization is urgently needed.