A STOCHASTIC BRANCHING MODEL WITH FORMATION OF SUBUNITS APPLIED TO THE GROWTH OF INTESTINAL CRYPTS

The intestinal epithelium is one of the most rapidly regenerating tissues in mammals. Cell production takes place in the intestinal crypts which contain about 250 cells. Only a minority of 1-60 proliferating cells are able to maintain a crypt over a long period of time. However, so far attempts to identify these stem cells were unsuccessful. Therefore, little is known about their cellular growth and selfmaintenance properties. On the other hand, the crypts appear to exhibit a life cycle which starts by fission of existing crypts and ends by fission or extinction. Data on these processes have recently become available. Here, we demonstrate how these data on the life cycle of the macroscopic crypt structure can be used to derive a quantitative model of the microscopic process of stem cell growth. The model assumptions are: (1) stem cells undergo a time independent supracritical Markovian branching process (Galton-Watson process); (2) a crypt divides if the number of stem cells exceeds a given threshold and the stem cells are distributed to both daughter crypts according to binomial statistics; (3) the size of the crypt is proportional to the stem cell number. This model combining two different stochastic branching processes describes a new class of processes whose stationary stability and asymptotic behavior are examined. This model should be applicable to various growth processes with formation of subunits (e.g. population growth with formation of colonies in biology, ecology and sociology). Comparison with crypt data shows that intestinal stem cells have a probability of over 0·8 of dividing asymmetrically and that the threshold number should be 8 or larger. © 1991 Academic Press Limited.