THE STOCK-MARKET BUBBLE OF 1929 - EVIDENCE FROM CLOSED-END MUTUAL FUNDS

Economists directly observe warranted “fundamental” values in only a few cases. One is that of closed-end mutual funds: their fundamental value is simply the current market value of the securities that make up their portfolios. We use the difference between prices and net asset values of closed-end mutual funds at the end of the 1920s to estimate the degree to which the stock market was overvalued on the eve of the 1929 crash. We conclude that the stocks making up the S & P composite were priced at least 30 percent above fundamentals in late summer, 1929. © 1991, The Economic History Association. All rights reserved.