An oracle based method to compute a coupled equilibrium in a model of international climate policy

被引:22
作者
Drouet, Laurent [1 ,2 ]
Haurie, Alain [3 ,4 ]
Moresino, Francesco [2 ]
Vial, Jean-Philippe [3 ,4 ]
Vielle, Marc [2 ,5 ]
Viguier, Laurent [2 ,6 ]
机构
[1] Ecole Polytech Fed Lausanne, ORDECSYS, Lausanne, Switzerland
[2] Ecole Polytech Fed Lausanne, REME EPFL, Lausanne, Switzerland
[3] ORDECSYS, Geneva, Switzerland
[4] Univ Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland
[5] Univ Social Sci, CEA LERNA, Toulouse, France
[6] MIT Joint Program Sci & Policy Global Change, Cambridge, MA USA
关键词
Climate change negotiations; Dynamic game model; Coupled constraints; Stochastic modal jumps;
D O I
10.1007/s10287-007-0043-2
中图分类号
O1 [数学]; C [社会科学总论];
学科分类号
03 ; 0303 ; 0701 ; 070101 ;
摘要
This paper proposes a computational game-theoretic model for the international negotiations that should take place at the end of the period covered by the Kyoto protocol. These negotiations could lead to a self-enforcing agreement on a burden sharing scheme given the necessary global emissions limit that will be imposed when the real extent of climate change is known. The model assumes a non-cooperative behavior of the parties except for the fact that they will be collectively committed to reach a target on total cumulative emissions by the year 2050. The concept of normalized equilibrium, introduced by J.B. Rosen for concave games with coupled constraints, is used to characterize a family of dynamic equilibrium solutions in an m-player game where the agents are (groups of) countries and the payoffs are the welfare gains obtained from a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The model deals with the uncertainty about climate sensitivity by computing an S-adapted equilibrium. These equilibria are computed using an oracle-based method permitting an implicit definition of the payoffs to the different players, obtained through simulations performed with the global CGE model GEMIN1-E3.
引用
收藏
页码:119 / 140
页数:22
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