MODELING INSIDE GIS .2. SELECTING AND CALIBRATING URBAN MODELS USING ARC-INFO

This is the second of two papers which elaborates a framework for embedding urban models within GIS. In the first paper (Batty and Xie 1994), we outlined how the display functions of a proprietary GIS could be used to organize a series of external software modules which contained the central elements of the modelling process, namely dataset selection and analysis, and model specification, calibration, and prediction. In that paper, we dwelt on display and data analysis functions whereas here we outline the model-based functions of the system. We begin by reviewing residential location models based on population density theory, stating continuous and discrete model forms, and calibration methods. We then illustrate a pass through the software using data for the Buffalo urban region, showing how observed data and model estimates can be evaluated through graphic display. We present ways in which the system can be used to explore and fit a variety of models to different zoning systems and in so doing, show how subset selection and aggregation can be used to find models with good fit. Finally we draw conclusions and outline an agenda for further research.