PROSPECTS FOR THE POWER SECTOR IN 9 DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES

Based on information drawn primarily from official planning documents issued by national governments and/or utilities, this article examines the outlook for the power sector in the year 2000 in nine countries: China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Taiwan, Argentina and Mexico. This study found that the implicit rates of average annual growth of installed electric power capacity between 1991 and 2001 range from a low of 3.3% per year in Argentina to a high of 13.2% per year in Indonesia. In absolute terms, China and India account for the vast majority of the growth. The plan calls for a shift in the generating mix towards coat in six of the countries, and continued strong reliance on coal in China and India. The use of natural gas is expected to increase substantially in a number of the countries. The historic movement away from oil continues, although some countries are maintaining dual fuel capabilities. Plans call for considerable growth of nuclear power in South Korea and China and modest increases in India and Taiwan. The feasibility of the official plans varies among the countries. Lack of public capital is leading towards greater reliance on private sector participation in power projects in many Of the countries. Environmental issues are becoming a more significant constraint than in the past, particularly in the case of large-scale hydropower projects. The financial and environmental constraints are leading to a rising interest in methods of improving the efficiency of electricity supply and end use. The scale of such activities is growing in most of the study countries.