BUSINESS CYCLES IN THE UNITED-KINGDOM - FACTS AND FICTIONS

This paper documents the statistical properties of contemporary business fluctuations in the United Kingdom. We study the period 1956-90 using quarterly, detrended data on key aggregate variables. We compute selected moments of the data, compare our results with those for the United States, and rigorously test for dynamic instabilities. Our findings confirm the existence of substantive cyclical regularities, both across countries and across time. Some notable cross-country differences are also identified. Conclusions about stability are shown to be potentially sensitive to the method of testing. In general, cross-correlations are appreciably more stable than standard deviations.